Tablet PC Thoughts

Sunday, September 18, 2005

John Smart @ AC2005

John wrapped up the evening (beginning his talk at 11:21pm!) on How to Be a Tech Futurist ...

1. Introduction
2. Universal Assumptions
3. Two Processes of Change: Evolution and Development
4. Introduction to Accelerating Change
5. Prediction: Expecting the Future
6. Management: Thriving with Change
7. Creation: Making the Future

His talk reviewed how "futurism" is slowly becoming a real science ... a real area of study. With the current states of Future Studies (2 US Graduate Programs), Science and Technology Studies (30+ US programs), and Technology Roadmapping (5 US programs + 1 PhD) there is a growing movement in the right direction.

There were a couple of very interesting references that I hadn't seen yet. One of them was the Shell report on energy consuption called Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050 ... a very interesting analysis showing the relationship between per capita income and energy consumption. When combined with the flattening of population on earth (estimated by the UN in their 2002 revision) is seems that many of the fears of past decades ar not going occur.

John is always amazing to hear ... too many facts and references ... I'll be reading for weeks!


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